And that can be a capricious mine field. Whether it’s gold, real estate, precious gems, art, vintage wines … or antiques, each carries its own risk.

However, some people see the numbers of recent sales and believe investing in antiques customarily bring high returns. For example:

• The 1918 upside-down biplane stamp selling for $825,000.

• The $956,000 Jeb Stuart battle flag.

• A 1912 lithographed-paper Coca-Cola sign bought for $37,400.

• The Riley Haskell Musky Minnow fishing lure selling at auction for $33,600.

These, and numerous other “success” stories appear each week in AntiqueWeek and other publications.

Although there certainly are the lucky (and, perhaps skillful) “prospectors” and investors, are antiques and collectibles a sound financial investment? Or are they merely, the stuff of dreams?

Of course, a savvy buyer may make a handsome return jumping onto an emerging market. But the problem is knowing: What is the emerging market; and how long will it “emerge?”

During the past decade, bets have been on the rising markets of militaria, hunting collectibles and antique weapons.

Overall high prices, and record results, for hunting collectibles were recently tallied at the Jan. 23-24 Sold USA online catalog auction. Shotgun shell boxes hit new record highs approaching $3,000, while antique rifle and shotgun advertising die-cuts and calendars performed extremely well.

“Collectibles are trading higher than stocks right now,” says SoldUSA president Chris Roberts. “Of course, quality always sells, and someone who knows what they’re doing can always do well within this market. People get scared out of the stock market and turn to collectibles. It’s a good place to put your money. I haven’t seen a dip in these collectibles – and good antique weapons – since I’ve been in business (17 years) … it just gets better. I see no end in sight.”

Many who watch the antiques market agree with Roberts, at least, to a point.

“Realistically, militaria and weapons are one of the few areas that seems to be recession proof,” says noted author and antiques appraiser Harry Rinker, “but this is a very trendy market … right now, Revolutionary War items are a little soft. But, Civil War does well, Vietnam war is doing well and World War II items are increasing in value … weapons, particularly Winchesters, are increasing in value.”

But, to wisely invest you have to be savvy about the ins and outs of the field, according to Rinker.

“This is a very sophisticated market … you have to know what you’re doing,” he continues. “Not only are there a lot of reproductions, but you have to consider what’s in the future. In any category, whether militaria, weapons or whatever, there’s a breaking point. Every market prices itself out of existence. There’s a limit to what people will spend.”

Not having a crystal ball is problematic, even for those who have been documenting the prices of antiques and collectibles for the past 40 years.

“Every time the market drops, we hear this (investing in the stock market),” said Terry Kovel, who with her husband Ralph, has written and edited numerous antique and collectible price guides for 41 years. “A couple of years ago there were a group of investors who wanted us to help them put together some type of hedge fund; all we would have to do was select the antiques in which they would invest. We told them ’no way;’ we didn’t have to think about that one too long.”

One of the problems of investing in antiques, let alone “emerging collectibles” is the period of payback.

“It’s not a quick fix,” Kovel says. “You’ll probably have to wait 20 years.”

And with the amount of fakes and the well-publicized chicanery within the antiques industry, knowledge is key.

“First off, if you’re a real serious collector you really have to do your homework,” Kovel says. “And you have to buy nothing but the best.”

And, from an investment perspective, you have to buy at the “best” price.

“That’s another key,” she says. “When we first started collecting we collected a lot of older food packaging, and restaurant items, because Ralph was in the food business. People just gave us this stuff, then, it was their junk. Now, some of these items are worth $1,000 or more. We didn’t pay anything for the stuff and, now, it’s some of the best investments we made.”

Calculating the return on collectible investments is difficult, at best, according to David J. Maloney, a longtime collector and prominent appraisal expert. The field has become almost too subjective to access any one value on a collectible, let alone evaluate its market performance.

Condition and sales venue play a big part in an ever-changing global marketplace.

“It’s not like the old days, when you could go to the price guides or the antique news digests and assign a price,” Maloney says. “A price guide will give figures a year, or sometimes two years, old. That’s not good enough now, things move too fast. From an appraiser’s perspective, the value is based on what’s happening on the Internet. With all these variables, drawing comparables and tracking market trends, is much more difficult … especially for the generalist, it’s not an exact science.”

One of the few attempts at an objective analysis was offered by Benjamin J. Burton of Lehman Brothers, and Joyce P. Jacobsen an economics professor at Wesleyan University. In a 1999 article published in The Journal of Economic Perspectives, they wrote that collectibles tend to yield a higher return when the stock market is doing poorly.

Drawing from a classic study, involving centuries of auction data done by economist William J. Baumol, the conclusion held that average gains from art outpace inflation by about half a percentage point – falling a couple points under what investors could earn from low-risk bonds.

Returns on wine, another popular collectible, were also less than satisfying. The pair selected red wine from France’s Bordeaux region, which is typically bought as an investment, appreciated by 7.9 percent year, far less than the 13.5 percent gain in the stock market during the same period, and slightly above the 5.5 percent return of one-year U.S. Treasury bills.

However, like many collectibles, wine, unlike stocks does not pay dividends, and may have storage costs associated with it.

“Wine should not be saved, but savored,” the authors wrote.

Perhaps, that’s the same message with all antiques and collectibles.

Eric C. Rodenberg